Tuberville leads Jones 48-45 in poll from Democratic firm
Blueprint Polling survey finds race within margin of error as Jones outruns his party; private polls reviewed by APR agree.
Days before the election, a new statewide poll shows Alabama’s race for governor within the margin of error.
Republican Tommy Tuberville leads Democrat Doug Jones 48 percent to 45 percent, according to a survey released Wednesday by Chism Strategies. Seven percent of voters remain undecided.
Blueprint Polling, Chism’s polling arm, surveyed 695 likely general election voters October 22-24. Chism is a voter-contact firm that works to elect Democrats and advance progressive causes. The firm says Blueprint is not affiliated with either campaign and that no candidate or outside organization paid for the poll. Respondents received text messages and completed the survey online. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.72 percentage points.
Before pollsters asked undecided voters which candidate they leaned toward, Tuberville led 45 percent to 44 percent. Those voters favored Tuberville by roughly 2-to-1.
The result is closer than other public polling this month. A Cygnal survey for Gray Media Alabama and Alabama Daily News, conducted October 16-17, showed Tuberville ahead 51 percent to 40 percent. In July, a poll from the pro-school-choice Yes, Every Kid Foundation showed Tuberville leading 49 percent to 41 percent.
Several private polls APR reviewed, including surveys commissioned by Republican and Democratic interests, have shown a similar single-digit race.
Chism’s release emphasizes that Jones is running ahead of his party. Republican Barry Moore leads Democrat Everett Wess 48 percent to 40 percent in the U.S. Senate race. Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot by the same margin. Jones runs about 5 percentage points ahead of either Democratic benchmark.
Jones draws support from 12 percent of self-identified Republicans and 11 percent of voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024. Tuberville wins less than 1 percent of Democrats.
The survey’s sample may tilt somewhat toward Democrats. Among respondents who said they voted in 2024, about 61 percent reported supporting Trump, a few percentage points below the nearly 65 percent he won statewide.
Beyond party affiliation, age marks the sharpest divide. Voters 65 and older favor Tuberville 69 percent to 25 percent. Voters younger than 30 favor Jones 75 percent to 21 percent.
White voters support Tuberville 59 percent to 36 percent. Black voters support Jones 75 percent to 14 percent, with 11 percent undecided. Independents who lean toward neither party favor Jones 50 percent to 14 percent, with more than a third undecided.
The cost of living tops voters’ concerns at 31 percent. Ethics and corruption in state government rank second at 19 percent, ahead of jobs and the economy at 16 percent.
Jones leads among voters most concerned about ethics, 60 percent to 34 percent, and those focused on the cost of living, 51 percent to 43 percent. Tuberville leads among voters who prioritize jobs and the economy, 55 percent to 41 percent, and wins more than 90 percent of voters who name crime or immigration as their top concern.
Neither candidate is broadly popular. Forty-two percent of voters view Tuberville favorably, while 49 percent view him unfavorably. Jones has a favorable rating of 45 percent and an unfavorable rating of 39 percent.
Trump’s numbers are weaker than his 2024 showing. Forty-seven percent of respondents approve of his job performance, while 51 percent disapprove.
Undecided voters could determine the outcome. According to Chism, they backed Trump 53 percent to 13 percent in 2024, but 62 percent now disapprove of his performance and 24 percent approve.
Among undecided voters, 44 percent view Tuberville unfavorably and 18 percent view him favorably. For Jones, those figures are 38 percent unfavorable and 20 percent favorable. They favor the Republican in the Senate race, 25 percent to 15 percent, though most remain undecided in that contest, too.
Undecided voters account for only about 50 respondents, so those results carry a much wider margin of error. Results for other smaller groups within the sample are also less precise than the overall findings.
Nearly 4 percent of respondents said they had already voted absentee.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
