Alabama’s 2nd District race shifts to toss-up
New polling and a redrawn map sharpened both parties’ focus on a district that could help decide House control.
Nonpartisan political analysis newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted its rating for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” moving the race between state Representative Rhett Marques and incumbent U.S. Representative Shomari Figures, D-Alabama, into its most competitive category.
The ratings change comes days before midterm elections in which Democrats are expected to gain several congressional seats as the economy struggles to keep pace with the cost of living amid the Trump administration’s war in Iran and ongoing tariff disputes.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee touted the change as evidence that Figures’ economic policies are drawing support across party lines.
“While Shomari Figures shows up and delivers for the people of Alabama, his opponent Rhett Marques has been supporting tax increases and policies that raise costs for working people,” DCCC spokesperson Eli Cousin said. “That clear contrast is why Congressman Figures is drawing support from Republicans, Democrats, and Independents in every corner of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District as he builds the coalition needed to win in November.”
Figures won the district by 9.2 percentage points in 2024 under a court-ordered remedial map. A panel of federal judges ordered the new map after ruling that Alabama’s previous maps were racially discriminatory.
The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais in April, however, allowed the Legislature to restore the district’s pre-2024 boundaries, reducing its Democratic vote share and giving Republicans an advantage in their challenge to Figures’ reelection.
Despite those changes, several polls show Figures gaining momentum in the final stretch of the campaign and suggest a competitive race against Marques.
“This race has been competitive and winnable since the moment we got in it,” Figures told APR in a written statement Wednesday. “We have a solid record of delivering for the district, and we will continue when we win this election. People here are tired of what’s going on and this November they will voice that frustration.”
In a separate statement to APR, Marques downplayed the significance of the latest polling and repeatedly characterized Figures as a “socialist.”
“The people of Alabama will decide this race at the ballot box, not pundits who spin from their ivory towers and cocktail parties,” Marques said. “Radical far-left billionaires and the socialist swamp squad pouring millions into the Second District won’t change the fact that Alabamians want common sense.”
“While Shomari covers up his socialist voting record, I’m criss-crossing the district campaigning on the truth that I cut $1.5 billion in taxes, kept boys out of girl’s locker rooms, and banned gender transition surgeries on children,” he added. “This race is between Shomari’s crazy socialist party and my commonsense record.”
The midterm elections are November 3.
