Race rater narrows GOP edge in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District
Analysts cited Shomari Figures’ incumbency, Democratic polling and potential Black turnout as factors tightening a nationally watched House race.
A nonpartisan race rater shifted its projection for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District on Thursday, projecting a smaller Republican advantage than previously reported.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis shifted its rating for CD2 from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
The district’s race between incumbent Representative Shomari Figures, D-Alabama, and Republican nominee and former Alabama Representative Rhett Marques has become a priority for national Republicans after the Alabama Legislature redrew the district in Republicans’ favor during its 2026 special session.
While Sabato’s Crystal Ball maintained Marques’ edge in the CD2 race, the report highlighted previous DCCC polling that showed Figures tied with Marques while emphasizing Figures’ incumbent advantage and the likelihood of high Black voter turnout benefiting Figures.
“Some publicly-released Democratic polls over the past few months found him effectively tied with state Rep. Rhett Marques (R); to us that still means Figures is an underdog (we generally interpret publicly-released internal polls to be rosy for the side that releases them), but Figures, as an incumbent, should get help from national Democrats,” the Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis reads.
“Additionally, Black turnout could be relatively strong across the South, partially in response to the Supreme Court’s Callais decision, which allowed Republicans to dismantle a few substantially Black, Democratic districts, including Figures’s old district. This new [district] is still about 40 percent Black, though,” the analysis added.
CD2 was drawn in Democrats’ favor in 2023 by a federally appointed special master and cartographer after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Legislature’s 2023 map diluted Black voting strength in the district. After the federally appointed map was implemented for the 2024 elections, Figures won the CD2 seat, marking the first time Alabama sent two Black representatives to Congress.
The Legislature reverted to its 2023 map this year following the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which weakened provisions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and a subsequent Supreme Court ruling releasing the state from a mandate requiring federally drawn congressional maps through 2031.
The ratings shift drew support from Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leadership, which backed Figures’ campaign while criticizing Marques’ record on taxes as a state representative.
“Multiple public polls make it clear: Shomari Figures can win this race. While Figures shows up and delivers for the people of Alabama, his opponent Rhett Marques has been supporting tax increases and policies that raise costs for working people,” DCCC spokesperson Eli Cousin said.
“That clear contrast is why Congressman Figures is drawing support from Republicans, Democrats, and Independents in every corner of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District as he builds the coalition needed to win in November.”
Marques, meanwhile, has received endorsements from President Donald Trump and the National Republican Congressional Committee, which in August designated CD2 a priority seat for Republicans to flip in 2026.
The Figures and Marques campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the analysis.
